Blog

Calm, honest notes on market fear, investor psychology and rule-based investing — written to help you decide before the storm, not during it.

October 2, 2026
The Real Growth Engine: I Tested 5,000+ ETFs in the Calm Years

Two out of three trading days are calm. That's where your money is actually made. So I ran one rule across 5,000+ U.S. funds and fifteen years of calm days — and the winners were not the funds you'd expect. Includes a searchable table of every fund.
September 18, 2026
When the Market Gets Nervous, Should You Sell? I Tested Over 5,000 ETFs.

I ran one rule — tilt defensive when the market turns nervous — across over 5,000 U.S. funds and fifteen years. Most defensive moves quietly cost you. Here's what actually held, plus a searchable table of every fund.
August 30, 2026
I Tested 5,386 ETFs for a Safe Haven. 87% Failed.

I ran one rule — flee to a safe haven when fear peaks — across thousands of U.S. funds and fifteen years of crashes. Most failed. Here's what actually held, plus a searchable table of every fund.
August 23, 2026
How to Find the Way of Investing That Actually Fits You

Value investing or rules-based? The honest question isn't 'which is best' but 'which one fits you' — three questions to find your investing approach.
August 14, 2026
Overfitting: Why a Perfect Backtest Curve Is a Warning Sign

Overfitting in backtests — what it is, why a perfect equity curve should worry you, and the honest ways to test whether your strategy will hold up.
July 31, 2026
Combining Strategies into a Portfolio — Blend or Diversify?

How to combine rule-based investment strategies into one portfolio — where blending genuinely smooths the ride, and where it just averages the risk.
July 28, 2026
The VIX Explained — What the Fear Gauge Really Shows

A plain-language guide to what the VIX actually measures, how to read the numbers, what it isn't, and where it falls short as a market-fear signal.
July 16, 2026
Three Example Strategies for Different Risk Profiles

Three rule-based strategy examples — conservative, balanced, aggressive — each with real PortfolioLab backtests. Templates, not recommendations.
July 10, 2026
What Is Backtesting — and How to Read the Results Honestly

A plain-language guide to what a backtest is, which metrics matter (drawdown before CAGR), overfitting warning signs, and how to use one honestly.
June 19, 2026
When Hedging Actually Pays Off — and When It Just Costs

When does hedging pay off, and when does it just cost returns? An honest look at vol hedges, defensive assets, and the rule-based answer.
June 10, 2026
How to Build Your First Strategy in PortfolioLab

A step-by-step walkthrough for building your first rule-based strategy in PortfolioLab — from idea to first backtest, with screenshots.
June 4, 2026
Buy-and-Hold vs. Tactical Investing — When Each Wins

Buy and hold vs tactical investing: an honest comparison of when each wins, the trade-offs, and how a rule-based approach changes the question.
May 29, 2026
What Is a Fear Index? How Market Fear Is Measured

What is a fear index? A plain-language guide to how market fear is measured, how the VIX works, and how it differs from CNN's Fear & Greed Index.
May 28, 2026
Panic Selling: Why Falling Markets Aren't the Real Risk

Panic selling, not falling markets, is what really costs investors. Here's why we sell at the worst moment — and how rules set in advance prevent it.